According to our odds bros at Odds Shark, the Atlanta Falcons are only favored -2 against the New Orleans Saints. Even though the game is being played in Atlanta, the Falcons have the better record, New Orleans has already lost to Atlanta in the Superdome, Atlanta won convincingly last week (yesterday), and the Saints lost last week (yesterday).
Standard home-team bump is three points, and with Matt Ryan’s absurd 18-1 home record Atlanta’s is probably more like four. This means New Orleans could be favored by as much as -6 if the game were being played in New Orleans, which is an even bigger spread than week three, when the Super Bowl champion Saints were favored over the 1-1 Falcons by -4.5.
The Saints are every bit as talented as the Falcons, and with a few breaks for either side their records could be inverted. But let’s not play like the Saints haven’t caught their share of lucky bounces over the past two years.
Still, New Orleans has much more to lose here, having not clinched a playoff spot and needing a win to keep Atlanta from clinching home field. If the Falcons can win in New Orleans, then the Saints could win in Atlanta.