SB Nation Atlanta: All Posts by Josh Massey

NFL Picks, Week 17: Buccaneers-Falcons, Panthers-Saints, Giants-Cowboys And More

2012-01-01T15:31:34Z

The picks:

Detroit (-4) @ Green Bay. The game of the weekend, as far as Falcons fans are concerned (assuming Atlanta takes care of the Bucs, which yeah, let's just go with that). The Packers have already clinched home-field advantage through the playoffs, so don't expect to see much of Aaron Rodgers and other starters. On the other hand, the Lions have something huge at stake - avoiding the Saints. Lose here, Detroit heads to New Orleans; win and they face the winner of Dallas/New York, sending Atlanta to the Superdome. I'm sure the players would never admit it, but we all know the preferable destination. The power of Lambeau should still win out, but that may be wishful thinking. PICK: Green Bay

Tennessee (-1) @ Houston. Houston has already clinched the AFC South, while Tennessee is still playing for something. Well, sort of - the Titans have to win and have three other games go their way for the postseason to happen. I just don't think the Texans are in any place to rest starters, because, well, how many do they have left anyway? PICK: Houston

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville (-3 1/2). The problem with running this column on Sunday is the obvious stuff has already been said - and I deal in obvious stuff, if you haven't noticed. But let me stress, as others have: the current Colts players don't want Andrew Luck. They want Mr. Manning behind center in 2012, not some rookie they don't know. Plus, there is no tanking in the NFL - when careers last 3.5 years on average (no research done, FYI), players can't afford to slack just because the postseason isn't on the line. That doesn't mean their jobs aren't. The Colts will win, blow the first pick, and we'll spend the next few months wondering who will trade with the Rams - assuming they'll stay the course with Sam Bradford. PICK: Indianapolis

NY Jets @ Miami (-3). Eh, the Jets are technically playing for something - but like the Titans, they need a win plus three other games to fall their way. And there aren't many teams that would be more delighted to send Rex Ryan home to his XXL loveseat than the Dolphins. PICK: Miami

Chicago @ Minnesota (-1). I'm guessing I'm the only one reading this who's ever started Joe Webb on their fantasy team. I did it last year - obviously, my team sucked - but I quickly realized the guy had actual skills, and I was perplexed when the Vikings drafted Christian Ponder so early. Well, the spotlight is now yours, Mr. Webb. And wait, is this Vikings team the first one to start a black quarterback and a white running back (Toby Gerhart) in the same game? Wow, the future sure looks wacky. (I'm writing this in 2011, future-folk.) PICK: Minnesota

Buffalo @ New England (-12). With a win, the Patriots will clinch home-field advantage through the playoffs, and Buffalo's one-time hope has been long extinguished. Here's the rub, though: the Bills can void most of Ryan Fitzpatrick's massive contract in the off-season if they see fit. So ol' Fitzy has a prize to earn as well, and he's smart enough to know it. PICK: Buffalo

Carolina @ New Orleans (-9). The Saints clinch a first-round bye with a win plus a 49ers loss, but that doesn't look likely with San Francisco going up against St. Louis. So don't be surprised to see New Orleans starters pulled if the 49ers go up early - unless, of course, the Saints are really scoreboard-watching. Tom Brady is only 190 yards behind Drew Brees' NFL record passing mark. If Brady is on pace for 400 yards, does Sean Payton dare pull Brees when he's sitting at 150 at halftime? PICK: Carolina

Washington @ Philadelphia (-9 1/2). Nothing makes me happier than to report there are NO playoff implications here. No matter who wins, who loses, who ties, there are no teams involved with this game going to the postseason. Oh 2012, you pesky rapscallion, off to a rousing start! PICK: Washington

San Francisco (-12) @ St. Louis. All hands will be on the 49ers deck, as the team clinches a first-round bye with a win. San Fran waxed the Rams 26-0 early in December, and the result here should be similar. PICK: San Francisco

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta (-12). My best Christmas present was having this game flexed to 4:15; the New Year's Eve open bar would have made a 1 p.m. kickoff less than ideal for this season-ticket holder. However, it also gives the game a potential of worthlessness: if Detroit beats Green Bay earlier in the day, Atlanta will be headed to New Orleans win or lose. Since I'm expecting the Pack's second string to actually win, I'll go ahead and call for Atlanta to rub this in Tampa's face a little bit. But I wouldn't place my bets until about 4:10. PICK: Atlanta

Baltimore (-1) @ Cincinnati. The Ravens earn a first-round bye with a win, and Cincinnati is officially a wild-card team if victorious. This is another one you might not want to touch until game-time, though - if the Jets lose earlier in the day, the Bengals won't be playing for anything. That said, two things: 1) The Bengals might not rest anybody anyway, and 2) I'm pretty sure the Ravens suck. PICK: Cincinnati

Pittsburgh (-7 1/2) @ Cleveland. The Steelers have already clinched a wild-card spot, but earn the division and a first-round bye with a win plus a Ravens loss. Ben Roethlisberger is likely to take the field, and should play the entire game unless an injury and/or runaway Bengals win occurs. There will be blood. PICK: Pittsburgh

Seattle @ Arizona (-1 1/2). One of the few games you can safely ignore. Let's do so here. PICK: Arizona

Kansas City @ Denver (-3). Tim Tebow is going to the playoffs, y'all. That's not so much a prediction as a realization of inevitability. The Broncos clinch a wild-card berth with a win, or an Oakland loss - and they'll get it done themselves. The release of Kyle Orton - now KC's starter - may be the best QB-related move Denver has made in a decade. PICK: Denver

San Diego @ Oakland (-2 1/2). The Chargers ain't goin' anywhere, but can make sure Oakland stays home by winning here. The Raiders need a win and a Denver loss to keep playing in 2012, but I don't see either happening. PICK: San Diego

Dallas @ NY Giants (-3). Here we come to the final game of the Week 17 slate, otherwise known as the NFL's wet dream: two marquee teams, big names on both sides, and it's win or go home. The Cowboys at the Giants, winner takes the NFC East, loser watches the playoffs on the couch. I don't know much, but I do know this game will destroy the psyche of one fan-base for the next eight months. And if I have to choose, I hope it's the people who root for Keith Brooking. Because, gross. PICK: NY Giants

Follow @joshmassey1 on Twitter for playoff picks and various other nonsensical crap.

Last week: 9-7
Yearly total: 126-110-4

NFL Picks, Week 16: Falcons-Saints, Giants-Jets, Eagles-Cowboys And More

2011-12-24T16:41:31Z

The picks:

Cleveland @ Baltimore (-12). The Ravens have already wrapped up a playoff berth, but are still playing for a first-round bye. Of course, this was also true last week, when the team turned in its biggest stinker of the year, a 34-14 embarrassment to the Chargers. The Browns are pretty bad, but they do hang around with better teams - and will do so again this week. PICK: Cleveland

Denver (-2 1/2) @ Buffalo. The beauty of the AFC West is it's conceivable the division could end up in a four-way tie at 8-8, at which point I'm sure the Commissioner would rig a tiebreaker so Mr. Tebow goes into the postseason. The Anointed One can actually seal that up today, though, with a win and an Oakland loss - so be prepared for the media onslaught if that happens. If Drew Brees breaks the all-time single-season yardage record this week and Tebow gets into the playoffs, anybody care to guess what gets more hype? (Not that I'm complaining - any attention diverted from the Saints is fine by me.) PICK: Denver

Tampa Bay @ Carolina (-7 1/2). There are many unanswered questions floating around this Atlanta Falcons season, but the one I can't get past: How in the holy hell did they lose to the freakin' Bucs? PICK: Carolina

Arizona @ Cincinnati (-4 1/2). Shockingly, both teams are still playing for the postseason, and perhaps even more shockingly, the Cardinals are trying to win five straight for the first time in 34 years. One team is streaking, one team is limping - so fly with the little bird on this one. PICK: Arizona

Oakland @ Kansas City (-1). Ever so technically, there's a playoff storyline here - but it's not worth going into for either team. I just know I'm expecting the Chiefs to follow up the Packers victory by playing their most inept game of the year. Like, I won't be surprised if a few players forget to wear pants. PICK: Oakland

Miami @ New England (-9). This is always a weird one - I've probably lost more money betting Pats over Dolphins than any other combo in my life. If there was snow in the forecast, I'd be tempted to lean the same way, but it's all sunny (albeit cold) in Foxboro. A straight upset wouldn't be that surprising. PICK: Miami

NY Giants @ NY Jets (-3). I couldn't give two poops about either of these teams, but the game's ripple effect will prove fairly wide. A Giants win sets up a winner-takes-division match-up with the Cowboys next week, a Giants loss keeps Philadelphia's hopes alive. A Jets win keeps them at least even with the Bengals for a wildcard spot, a Jets loss possibly knocks them from contention and shuts up Rex Ryan's fat face. Ugh, go Giants. It's the only choice. PICK: NY Giants

St. Louis @ Pittsburgh (-12). No huge surprise, but Ben Roethlisberger will be on the sideline for this one - and his true worth was revealed in the process. Just before that news was announced, Vegas had this line at 17, and then it dropped fairly precipitously to what you see there. PICK: St. Louis

Jacksonville @ Tennessee (-7). Too many good games on today for you to waste your time with this one. And yes, that still counts even if your son plays for one of these teams. He'll understand. PICK: Tennessee

Minnesota @ Washington (-7). Again, I'm pretty sure Mrs. Grossman is wearing her Jets hoodie today. PICK: Minnesota

San Diego @ Detroit (-2 1/2). A Detroit victory means we can honestly say the words "playoff-bound Lions" for the first time this millennium. The Chargers have knocked off three in a row to climb back to .500, but the wheels of desperation are with the home team on this one. Because if the Lions can't pick up the W here, they might have to in Week 17 - at Green Bay. PICK: Detroit

Philadelphia @ Dallas (-1). Huge playoff implications for this one - maybe. As it stands right now, the Eagles still have a slim chance at the postseason, relying on the Cowboys and Giants to falter today, the the Cowboys to falter next week. But if the Giants beat the Jets in the early afternoon, Philly's dream is dead and the rest of the NFC can breathe easier (because, really, who would have wanted that match-up?). Since I'm calling that first game for the Giants, I'm thinking the then-deflated Eagles don't hang around this one. PICK: Dallas

San Francisco (-1) @ Seattle. Just to keep things interesting, there's only one way this game can turn out. PICK: Seattle

Chicago @ Green Bay (-12 1/2). Merry Christmas! And your present from the NFL is the 2011 starting debut of ~~Luke McCown~~ ~~Cade McNown~~ Josh McCown in the role of Chicago Bears QB! The Caleb Hanie experiment is mercifully over, but I'm afraid it's too late - the Bears drop out of playoff contention with a loss, and Mr. Aaron Rodgers does still have something to play for. A win today clinches home field through the playoffs. So we'll see you next year, Mr. Cutler, Mr. Forte, Mr. Han - oh, not so fast there, Mr. Hanie. PICK: Green Bay

Atlanta @ New Orleans (-7 1/2). Every other NFL team will have played twice between Atlanta's 14th and 15th game - and trust me, I'll take any sliver of advantage the NFL gods are willing to bestow. Other SB Nation Atlanta writers, who tend to study and not just pull things from their nether regions, are writing amazing stuff about this game right now. Check them out. PICK: Atlanta

For the rest of the season, the non-Sunday picks will be posted that day to Twitter: follow @joshmassey1

Thursday/Saturday games:
Last week: 6-10
Yearly total: 117-103-4

NFL Picks, Week 15: Saints-Vikings, Patriots-Broncos, Steelers-49ers And More

2011-12-18T18:26:20Z

The picks:

Miami (-1 1/2) @ Buffalo. Remember when the Bills were 5-2, and we were all thinking, "Wow, Chan Gailey has really turned this team around." We should have been smarter about that, I think. PICK: Miami

Seattle @ Chicago (-3 1/2). For a game with legitimate playoff ties, could this one seem any more boring? Tarvaris Jackson vs. Caleb Hanie, 6-7 at 7-6; even the weather is playing along with a sunny day expected in Chicago. Could we get a blizzard, at least? PICK: Seattle

Carolina @ Houston (-5 1/2). Much like our early season Chan Gailey love, this "wow, T.J. Yates is really good!" talk will bite us before season's end. Just try to say it out loud. Don't you feel a little bit silly? PICK: Carolina

Tennessee (-8) @ Indianapolis. You're giving Dan Orlovsky eight points at home?! Christmas has come early this year, baby! ... No, kidding, bet the Titans with all of your lifeforce. PICK: Tennessee

Green Bay (-15) @ Kansas City. If the Packers had given any indication they were even tapping the brakes, I'd try to talk you into taking the Chiefs at home. Thing is, Green Bay tends to beat bad teams like they were bad teams - Oakland by 30, Minnesota by 38, Rams by 21. They'll roll in Arrowhead. PICK: Green Bay

New Orleans (-7 1/2) @ Minnesota. There's a strange hint of upset emanating from this game, and as a Falcons fan, I'm going to go with it. Unlike the Packers, the Saints do lose to bad teams (Bucs, Rams) and it seems they're overdue for a heartbreaker. It actually doesn't do a whole lot for Atlanta's postseason, so I'm thinking this isn't just Homer-talk. PICK: Minnesota

Washington @ NY Giants (-7 1/2). Calling a Redskins victory right here would be homer-talk, because that would assist Atlanta more than any Saints win. Sadly, Homer has left the building. I'm not anticipating this Eli-playing-like-Peyton stuff to last all the way into the playoffs, but it will against a Redskins team that's given up 68 points in its last two games. PICK: NY Giants

Cincinnati (-7 1/2) @ St. Louis. Move along. Nothing to see here. (Unless you have A.J. Green or Steven Jackson on your fantasy team, of course.) PICK: Cincinnati

Detroit @ Oakland (PICK). The Raiders are short one Mr. Darren McFadden, which makes this line one of the more curious of the day. Still, it's probably the best non-Tebow game on today's schedule, and could get nasty by the time fans start filing out. PICK: Detroit

Cleveland @ Arizona (-7 1/2). I'm writing something for this game for one reason: the only guy who claims to be a regular reader is a Browns fan, and I don't want to disappoint him (any more than his team already has). Unfortunately, I don't have good news to impart, as the Cardinals are gelling right now and get to .500 with a win here. PICK: Arizona

New England (-9) @ Denver. Earlier this week, I heard 90% of gambling action was going toward New England. The nation largely remains outside of the Tebow Believer camp. But I don't, y'all. This is the biggest regular season game of the year, and I have a feeling it will play out that way too. Timmy will not only cover, Timmy will win. Praise be to Allah. PICK: Denver

NY Jets @ Philadelphia (-1 1/2). PICK: Philadelphia

Baltimore (-2) @ San Diego. It's "The Battle of Star QBs Who Are Stars Largely Because The Media Tells Us They Are!" The Chargers have won a couple games of late, but it's still a bad football team that will finish under-.500 The Ravens shouldn't have a problem here. PICK: Baltimore

Pittsburgh @ San Francisco (-2 1/2). Way to go, Monday Night Football. After presenting us with last week's Rams-Seahawks barn-burner, ESPN gets one right with this bound-to-be-bloody clash. That said, I still feel both of these teams are destined for early playoff exits, so waking up Tuesday morning with no significant injuries could be considered a win in itself. They'll need all the help they can get in January. PICK: Pittsburgh

For the rest of the season, the non-Sunday picks will be posted that day to Twitter: follow @joshmassey1

Thursday/Saturday games: 1-1
Last week: 8-8-0
Yearly total: 112-94-4

NFL Picks, Week 14: Falcons-Panthers, Bears-Broncos, Giants-Cowboys And More

2011-12-11T14:30:17Z

The picks:

Atlanta (-2 1/2) @ Carolina. For the second year in a row, I'm in Charlotte to see the Falcons play in the land of that awful neon blue. But while last year was a rainy, $5 scalped ticket-affair starring Jimmy Clausen, this might garner a little more interest from the Carolina semi-faithful. Cam Newton hosts the Falcons for the first time, but he won't be looking at his defense with kindness. And no, that's definitely not a hosanna for Atlanta's offense - it's just that Carolina's D is that bad. PICK: Atlanta

Indianapolis @ Baltimore (-18). Last week, the Colts proved they can really step up in the fourth quarter of a game they have no chance of winning, so why can't they spin that magic again? Ravens go up big, Colts score late for a back-door cover. 21-6, or some such garbage. PICK: Indianapolis

Houston @ Cincinnati (-1 1/2). TJ Yates looked like a fully-functioning quarterback last week against the Falcons, so Atlanta fans are hoping that was for real and not just a Dunta Robinson-induced fever dream. Nevertheless, the Bengals will probably limit the amount of soul-murdering blunders that allowed Houston to grab it's most recent win. At the very least, AJ Green catches a last-second bomb that hits his numbers, if it comes to that. Dammit. PICK: Cincinnati

Minnesota @ Detroit (-12). Something about this just reeks of low-scoring, so a double digit spread makes me nervous. One Stafford-to-Johnson touchdown will be the difference, not two or three. PICK: Minnesota

Tampa Bay (-1) @ Jacksonville. Two rabid NFL fanbases clash in north Florida to see who can snore the loudest while watching their team play. It's trickier than you think, because the winner usually knows to use the empty seats as an opportunity for loud echoes. Will these fans be that savvy? PICK: Jacksonville

Philadelphia @ Miami (-2 1/2). The Dolphins have spent the last few surprising weeks beating the likes of Buffalo, Kansas City and Oakland, but they may find their easiest win today against "the dream team." The Eagles seemed to throw up their shoulders in last week's 17-point loss at Seattle, and you won't find a group of guys who'd rather be farther away from an NFL stadium today. And that counts the paying fans of Tampa Bay @ Jacksonville, which is saying a lot. PICK: Miami

Kansas City @ NY Jets (-12). If you feel comfortable trusting Mark Sanchez with double digits, well then, God speed. Yes, it has happened before. And yes, it's KC on the road. I'd just like to give you this piece of ad - oh, ok, I can see your mind is already made up. Mark Sanchez (-12). Give me a hug first, though. Ok, good luck. PICK: Kansas City

New Orleans (-3 1/2) @ Tennessee. As a Falcons fan, it will again feel good to unapologetically root against the Saints, unlike last week's NO victory that went Atlanta's way on a playoff technicality. Not sure how long we'll actually be cheering, though. PICK: New Orleans

New England (-9) @ Washington. Fantasy football playoffs have started, and I have to imagine that's the rooting interest of most of this game's viewers. There's Tom Brady, Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis, and, um, I'm, really searching for a Redskin here. Roy Helu? Ick. PICK: New England

San Francisco (-3 1/2) @ Arizona. PICK: Arizona

Chicago @ Denver (-3 1/2). When I realized how much I was disappointed to miss this game, I finally admitted to my full Tebow conversion. I'll be spending the majority of it driving home from Charlotte, and I just can't stomach missing out on the 40 best QB sneaks of the week. I wonder if ESPN will show any highlights. PICK: Denver

Oakland @ Green Bay (-12 1/2). PICK: Green Bay

Buffalo @ San Diego (-9). Modern technology is amazing. I'm actually writing this paragraph about a San Diego game, for an Atlanta audience, from a Charlotte bathroom. No surprise, I guess - "Buffalo-San Diego" was just the game that popped into my head when I sat down here. PICK: San Diego

NY Giants @ Dallas (-4). As down as I am on my Falcons right now, I'd get VERY excited if we went to New York or Dallas in the first round of the playoffs. PICK: Dallas

St. Louis @ Seattle (-?). This Monday night game is still "off the board" as of Sunday morning - not because of injury or late-breaking news, but because Vegas probably just forgot about it. For the pick, check me out on Twitter on Monday (@joshmassey1). PICK: ?

For the rest of the season, the Thursday game pick will be posted that day to Twitter: follow @joshmassey1

Last week: 4-12-0 (give me a break - my first sub-.500 week all season)
Yearly total: 103-85-4

NFL Picks, Week 13: Falcons-Texans, Packers-Giants, Lions-Saints And More

2011-12-04T15:55:21Z

The picks:

Atlanta @ Houston (PICK). This line has shifted from Atlanta (-2 1/2) to a pick 'em in 24 hours time - which means the nation's gamblers aren't behind a potentially Michael Turner-less Falcons offense. And there's definitely something there - Jason Snelling doesn't have Turner's power, and Jacquizz Rodgers isn't built to push past first contact. But betting on the Texans means betting on rookie quarterback T.J. Yates, and I have enough faith in Atlanta's pass attack to not resort to that. PICK: Atlanta

Tennessee @ Buffalo (-1 1/2). The Bills are finally home after a wretched three week road trip (0-3, combined score 107-39). In that time, they've gone from a hopeful 5-3 to an out-of-it 5-6, and I have to think the team's psyche is a bit shattered. The Titans are just good enough to take advantage of that. PICK: Tennessee

Kansas City @ Chicago (-7). Or, in other words, Tyler Palko @ Caleb Hanie. And I just refuse to lay this many points at the feet of an unproven quarterback. Hell, most of the game's points will probably be defensive. PICK: Kansas City

Oakland @ Miami (-3 1/2). The Dolphins have become late season darlings, after reeling off three big wins and a close Thanksgiving day loss to Dallas. However, the Raiders have looked fairly impressive lately as well, and there's one crucial difference: those men in black are still playing for something. PICK: Oakland

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh (-8 1/2). Didn't we just watch this game? Yeah, turns out we did just three weeks ago, when the Steelers won by a touchdown in Cin-City. See, though, that's the most points Cincinnati has lost by this year - they haven't dropped a single one by more than seven. They'll keep that streak alive today. PICK: Cincinnati

Carolina @ Tampa Bay (PICK). Josh Freeman is out, and Josh Johnson will be under center. Sorry, I'm not picking against a team that relies so heavily on people named Josh, you guys. They might need me. (Yep, that's the depth of rationale behind many of these picks. Embarrassed you've read this far?). PICK: Tampa Bay

NY Jets (-2 1/2) @ Washington. Shame we can't bet on things like "how many times the average viewer will cut themselves, just to feel something." Some awful, ugly football on deck in the nation's capital today. PICK: Washington

Denver (-1) @ Minnesota. Go ahead, bet Minnesota. Put your money against Him. I dare you. PICK: Denver

Indianapolis @ New England (-20 1/2). Much talk about this game getting one of the NFL's largest spreads in history, and yes, you'd be historically correct in betting the underdog of any 20-point-plus match-up. Those games, though, didn't feature a remorseless cyborg coach wanting to exact bloodlust on his biggest rival. We'd have to hit 30 before I'd start thinking Colts here. PICK: New England

Baltimore (-7) @ Cleveland. The Ravens have enjoyed an extended break (having last played on Thanksgiving day), and have won four-of-five, most against very good teams. The Browns are 2-8 in their last 10, including a recent loss to the hapless Rams. So naturally, I'm pushing in my chips with Cleveland. Just feels right. PICK: Cleveland

Dallas (-4 1/2) @ Arizona. Both teams are doing some rather unceremonious winning of late (Dallas with four straight, Arizona with three-out-of-four), but Dallas puts its first nail in the NFC East coffin with a victory. Motive equals a road win. PICK: Dallas

Green Bay (-6 1/2) @ NY Giants. The marquee match-up of Week 13, at least until the game actually begins. The Giants made Drew Brees look like, well, Aaron Rodgers last week, so I'm thinking the real Rodgers will look even better. PICK: Green Bay

St. Louis @ San Francisco (-14). Will there be a more inexplicable NFL victory in 2011 than the Rams over the Saints? The Colts would have to win today to even think of matching that. PICK: San Francisco

Detroit @ New Orleans (-8 1/2). I'm not really understanding the size of this spread, which means a gambler should be sprinting New Orleans' way. But as an Atlanta native and life-long Falcons fan, that kind of action just ain't in the blood. PICK: Detroit

San Diego (-3) @ Jacksonville. Fdafdafda. No, that's not a misprint - that's actually what I type as a placeholder each week before figuring out what I'm going to write. In this case, though, I feel it's the most insightful analysis I can provide about this horrible Monday night game. (And remember, the Jags are back on prime time in only two weeks!). PICK: Jacksonville

For the rest of the season, the Thursday game pick will be posted that day to Twitter: follow @joshmassey1

Last week: 11-5-0
Thursday's game: 0-1
Yearly total: 99-74-4

NFL Picks, Week 12: Vikings-Falcons, Patriots-Eagles, Giants-Saints And More

2011-11-27T15:26:12Z

The picks:

Minnesota @ Atlanta (-9 1/2). When the Falcons 2011 schedule was announced last spring, this game was highlighted for one reason: my first opportunity to see Adrian Peterson play in person. Well, thanks to his high ankle sprain last week, Toby Gerhart will instead run the ball for Minnesota. That, combined with QB Christian Ponder's erratic play of late, should assist the Falcons with a pretty easy victory. PICK: Atlanta

Cleveland @ Cincinnati (-7). Interesting only as a battle of former UGA receivers: Mohamed Massaquoi vs. AJ Green. (In other words, not very interesting at all.) PICK: Cleveland

Carolina (-2 1/2) @ Indianapolis. Who will break first - Carolina's all-time crappy defense or Indianapolis's all-time crappy offense? Considering the Panthers operate fairly soundly on the other side of the ball, I have to think they'll emerge victorious here. But if you have kids wanting to pick up the game some day, keep them away from this one. No lessons to be learned in Indy today. PICK: Carolina

Houston (-6) @ Jacksonville. And the Matt Leinart era begins in Houston. The Texans are actually getting some respect from Vegas, likely thanks to Arian Foster and the return of Andre Johnson. But will Leinart's limited machinations (job description: Hand Off Machine) allow the Texans to cover? Eh, probably. PICK: Houston

Buffalo @ NY Jets (-9 1/2). The Bills were 4-1 to start, 1-4 since - and a glance at their schedule suggests they might not win another one. That said, laying this many points at Mark Sanchez's feet is pure madness. He could be playing the University of Buffalo and I still wouldn't feel comfortable with that. PICK: Buffalo

Arizona @ St. Louis (-2 1/2). Watching this game is like opening the Ark of the Covenant. I promise your face will melt off. And not in a good way. PICK: St. Louis

Tampa Bay @ Tennessee (-3). Couldn't either of these teams reel off a 6-0 to end the season without it being too shocking? Couldn't either of these teams reel of an 0-6 to end the season without it being too shocking? PICK: Tennessee

Chicago @ Oakland (-3). Houston will be able to survive without Matt Schaub, and Chicago thinks it can do the same without Jay Cutler. Newsflash to Bears Fan #1, though: Cutler meant so much more to his team than Schaub did to his. The Bears' running game, the wide outs - that offense hinged on Cutler's underrated precision, and it will be sorely missed. Even the defense will look off today. PICK: Oakland

Washington @ Seattle (-3). Do 20 push-ups for even reading this sentence. PICK: Seattle

New England (-3) @ Philadelphia. Michael Vick will miss his second straight game for the Eagles, which has provided us with the NFL's funniest Tebow-less sideshow: Philly fans attempting to convince themselves Vince Young is good. The comedy gift that keeps on giving. PICK: New England

Denver @ San Diego (-5 1/2). Denver's 2011 season should win an Emmy for Best Comedy Series, and I don't even mean that as a slight. Watching Tim Tebow dash through the Jets defense on his way to the winning touchdown was hilarious - especially coming against this vaunted D that knew exactly what was coming. My U. of Georgia diploma aside, I'm ready to hop on this Tebow bandwagon as long as he keeps frustrating the "experts" and making Rex Ryan's head explode. PICK: Denver

Pittsburgh (-10) @ Kansas City. One reason I'm picking the Chiefs: this line has violently swung toward the Steelers this week, meaning everybody is taking Mr. Roethlisberger and Co. When everybody bets one way, practice your healthy gambling discipline and sprint the other. PICK: Kansas City

NY Giants @ New Orleans (-8 1/2). This seems to be an overreaction to recent Giants losses which, let's remember, came against the not-so-bad 49ers and Eagles. Pump the brakes a little bit. And how's this for a little prognostication: not only do the Giants cover, they win. (Shhhh.) PICK: NY Giants

For the rest of the season, the Thursday game pick will be posted that day to Twitter: follow @joshmassey1

Last week: 7-6-1
Thursday's games: 1-2
Yearly total: 89-70-4

NFL Picks, Week 11: Titans-Falcons, Buccaneers-Packers, Eagles-Giants And More

2011-11-20T14:53:08Z

NFL odds found here.

The picks:

Cincinnati @ Baltimore (-7). AJ Green is out, which hurts the casual fan just as much as the Bengals. Is there another player on Cincinnati's roster you'd tune in to see? There's always the allure of a ginger quarterback, sure, but that freakshow carnival sideshow vibe aside, this game should be dreadful. Please tell me you're not banking on Joe Flacco for fireworks. PICK: Cincinnati

Jacksonville @ Cleveland (-1). A Browns fan recently scolded me, saying I never pick his team to cover. Sorry, my friend, the trend continues. Both teams are 3-6, but Cleveland's wins come against teams that are a collective 5-23. The Jags, a far more respectable 11-17 (ok, the 0-10 Colts are skewing both numbers). Take the road team, or better yet, ignore this game's existence. PICK: Jacksonville

Carolina @ Detroit (-6 1/2). The Lions need a big win here to quiet the whispers of implosion, and build up steam headed into Thursday's Green Bay game. The Panthers need to score. A lot. Oddly enough, probably the most exciting of the early games. PICK: Detroit

Tampa Bay @ Green Bay (-14). A lot to a little. PICK: Green Bay

Dallas (-7) @ Washington. A lotter to a littler. This is the one game I'm betting real money on this week. Washington is really, really horrible, you guys. The fact they started 3-1 is up there with John Mayer's popularity as one of life's great mysteries. PICK: Dallas

Buffalo @ Miami (-3). Three reasons you would watch this game: 1) Gambling. 2) Fantasy football. 3) Sadomasochistic tendencies. Can barely help you with the first one, absolutely can't help you with the last one, and your fantasy season is over if you're relying on anybody from these teams. Get some fresh air, go play with your kids. PICK: Miami

Oakland @ Minnesota (PICK). Ugh, and stop typing that "No, dude, I have Fred Jackson on my fantasy team and he's awesome!" No, he's not - hasn't scored a touchdown in over a month. Your team sucks, and your children miss their daddy. PICK: Oakland

Tennessee @ Atlanta (-6 1/2) I have yet to go back and watch a replay of last week's New Orleans loss. Haven't even seen a clip. From my seat in the Dome, I couldn't really tell how far the 4th down play - you know what, can't have this conversation again. I hate the Saints. Ugh. Let this game act as some much-needed Listerine. PICK: Atlanta

Seattle @ St. Louis (-3). At the end of each Sunday's late games, the NFL RedZone Channel does a cool montage of every touchdown, in order. Don't be surprised if this game fails to appear a single time. PICK: St. Louis

Arizona @ San Francisco (-10). PICK: San Francisco

San Diego @ Chicago (-3 1/2) Vegas' season-long infatuation with San Diego is perplexing. The Chargers have lost four straight, haven't beat a team with a winning record, but they're slight underdogs on the road against a far superior Bears team? Don't get it. Bet away, Merrill. Merrill, bet away. PICK: Chicago

Philadelphia @ NY Giants (-5 1/2). On Thursday, this line sat at Giants (-3 1/2). A day later, it was a touchdown. Now it seems to have settled somewhere in the middle - and that means no one knows how "Vince Young, NFL starter" will translate in 2011. I have my doubts. PICK: NY Giants

Kansas City @ New England (-16 1/2). I was hedging on this pick, reading Tyler Palko's Wikipedia page for clues. And then I realized I was reading one of this game's starting quarterback's Wikipedia pages to learn something about him. Yeah, never mind. It's an easy one. PICK: New England

For the rest of the season, the Thursday game pick will be posted that day to Twitter: follow @joshmassey1

Last week: 8-8-0
Thursday's game: 1-0
Yearly total: 82-62-3

NFL Picks, Week 10: Saints-Falcons, Lions-Bears, Patriots-Jets And More

2011-11-13T15:02:47Z

NFL odds found here.

The picks:

New Orleans @ Atlanta (-1). Yeah, it's a big one - no getting around that. Win, and the road to a playoff bye becomes less bumpy, lose and the wild card seems a heckuva lot more realistic. I'm hoping for a little more manifestation of what I've been saying this season, that the Saints are coasting on the good-will of the last few years and aren't a top 10 NFL team. Atlanta should take care of the home field, and I wouldn't be shocked if it gets a little out-of-hand. In fact, locking down the double-digit victory prediction NOW. PICK: Atlanta

Tennessee @ Carolina (-3 1/2). Aww, aren't they cute? Widdle baby blue warriors? (I'm taking every opportunity to condescend to the Panthers now, because I don't think there will be many chances in the next few years). PICK: Carolina

Pittsburgh (-4) @ Cincinnati. It's the 6-3 Steelers at the 6-2 Bengals - a real contender for game of the week, huh? Just don't look at the numbers too closely. Sure, each team has half-a-dozen W's on its ledger, but Pittsburgh's victories came against teams with a combined 15-34 record. Cincinnati is only slightly better than that at 16-32. These might be a couple of default playoff teams, but there isn't really a lot to like. PICK: Cincinnati

St. Louis @ Cleveland (-2 1/2). I can only assume fans at this game will watch Jack & Jill on the jumbotron, listen to the new Nickelback album at halftime, eat peppermint and squash pork rinds, shave their legs with dead squirrels, read the Penn State grand jury report in a German accent - anything to distract from the unending misery of what they'd otherwise see on the field. PICK: St. Louis

Buffalo @ Dallas (-5 1/2). Props to Buffalo, y'all - they've been a cute story and have selflessly entertained us all. And players, as a thank you, please accept four out of your next five games on the road, culminating in a sub-.500 record and another playoff miss. But it's been fun, you guys. PICK: Dallas

Jacksonville (-3) @ Indianapolis. The Colts have lost their last three games 120-24. The Jags have gone 1-2 in their last three, by a combined total of 39-48 - and all three teams are likely playoff-bound. It just shows while the Colts have accepted their Andrew Luck future, the Jags are still fighting. Not a hard call. PICK: Jacksonville

Denver @ Kansas City (-3). TebowTebowTebowTebowTebow. PICK: Kansas City

Washington @ Miami (-4). Through some bizarre fart-stain in the universe, I've ended up friends with several Redskins fans over the years. I made sure to speak to most of them this week, starting the conversation under some false pretense, asking about their kids, their wife, their happiness, a lot of other things I could care less about. Of course, it was just as a long, drawn-out preamble to breaking off mid-sentence and yelling, "UNDERDOG TO A 1-7 TEAM! JOHN BECK! JOHN BECK! UNDERDOG TO MATT MOORE!" I'm telling you, in the right circumstance, a phone getting vomited into can sound like a harp on Sunday, man. PICK: Miami

Arizona @ Philadelphia (-13 1/2). The Eagles were my pick in this week's "suicide pool" (where you have to pick one winner per week, not against the spread). Most any other time I see a spread that big, I'm fairly confident in the result - but does anybody really have a reading on this Philly team? Win by 30, lose by 30 - anything is possible. PICK: Philadelphia

Houston (-3 1/2) @ Tampa Bay. PICK: Tampa Bay

Baltimore (-7) @ Seattle. The Ravens have won back-to-back close games, and have both Cincinnati and San Fran (13-3 combined) coming up in the next eleven days. A west coast trip is a prime candidate for a stumbling sleepwalk effort, isn't it? This will be closer than it should be. PICK: Seattle

Detroit @ Chicago (-2 1/2). Detroit's "go down by three touchdowns and stage a miracle comeback" strategy from earlier in the season seems to have dissipated. And no wonder, because while Luck may be the name of Indianapolis's game next year, the lower case-version can only go for so long in the NFL. There may be one more piece of good fortune to befall them, though: the Lions are coming off a bye week, while Chicago just played a tough game on Monday. It could be enough to swing victory to the visitors. PICK: Detroit

NY Giants @ San Francisco (-3 1/2). After a couple weeks of facing off against scrubs, the 49ers finally arrive to the game they've been circling for a month. Eli's comin' - but he won't feel welcome for very long. PICK: San Francisco

New England @ NY Jets (PICK). PICK: New England

Minnesota @ Green Bay (-14 1/2). I have an odd feeling something odd happens here - maybe not odd in the sense of Vikings-megaupset, but odd nonetheless. Bad huju to bet on this one, methinks. PICK: Minnesota

For the rest of the season, the Thursday game pick will be posted that day to Twitter: follow @joshmassey1

Last week: 7-7-0
Thursday's game: 1-0
Yearly total: 74-54-3