SB Nation Atlanta: All Posts by Troy Heinzman

Justin Houston Is Most Popular Pick For Atlanta Falcons Among Mock Drafts

2011-03-18T17:43:00Z

It's possible the NFL won't play a season this year but the NFL Draft will take place and right now that's all that's keeping me sane. With just over a month to go before the three-day primetime event, there is a lot of speculation on which players will end up with what teams. The Atlanta Falcons are no different with widely varying opinions on players, positions and just what exactly is considered a need. The lack of free agency adds a new wrinkle to the draft-planning strategy.

In an effort to clarify this confusing situation, I dug through 60 of the top mock drafts posted in the last week. Yes, 60 of them. What? I had some spare time. Using such a massive amount of data, we can really start to see patterns develop. And with a hat tip to Jay Adams at AF.com, I created a word cloud to let us OOH and AHH at the pretty picture before diving into the hard data. First up is the position breakdown.

Word cloud created at Wordle.net

This makes it very clear that most experts believe the Falcons biggest need is defensive end and/or outside linebacker. Just to clarify, the positions used were from Scouts, Inc. meaning Justin Houston was categorized as a DE though he is listed as DE/OLB in most places. The other obvious needs are wide receiver and offensive tackle. Everything else appears to be inconsequential. Here's the raw numbers. *Note: Number is the number of times that position was selected.

Pos.	Number
OLB	15
DE	15
WR	12
OT	10
C	4
TE	1
RB	1
DT	1
ILB	1

Next up is the most popular players the Falcons are targeting. Again using the same data from the 60 mock drafts over the past week. Behold!

(click to embiggen)

We can see a clear favorite has emerged from the pack; Georgia's Justin Houston. Iowa's Adrian Clayborn is close behind with Jonathan Baldwin and Torrey Smith as the top wide receiver candidates. The full data beckons below. *Note: Number is the number of times that player was selected.

Player	Number
Justin Houston	12
Adrian Clayborn	9
Jonathan Baldwin	4
Gabe Carimi	4
Mike Pouncey	4
Torrey Smith	4
Derek Sherrod	3
Akeem Ayers	2
Ryan Kerrigan	2
Titus Young	2
Nate Solder	2
Leonard Hankerson	2
Stephen Paea	1
Martez Wilson	1
Cameron Heyward	1
Anthony Castonzo	1
Jabaal Sheard	1
Kyle Rudolph	1
Aldon Smith	1
Cameron Jordan	1
Ryan Williams	1
Greg Jones	1

Preparing to see Justin Houston in a Falcons jersey is probably a safe bet. Last year at this time, the wisdom of crowds said Sean Weatherspoon was the pick and the Falcons didn't waver. Will it happen again? My guess is the Georgia Dome will be seeing a lot of jerseys with Houston on the back in 2011. Or 2012. Or whenever they play football again.

NFL Lockout Could Mean Tony Gonzalez, Todd McClure Retirement If It Cancels Season

2011-03-15T14:32:05Z

I write this headline with every feeling that there will, in fact, be NFL football played in 2011. I believe that after all the posturing, a new deal will be reached and my Sundays will once again be filled with the sounds of America's pastime. But what if I'm wrong? What if the season doesn't happen? Let's play my favorite game, What-If? (That last question mark is part of the game's name and not a third consecutive question which would be ridiculous). Please, follow me through the jump.

A work stoppage that wipes out the entire season could put the careers of two favorite Atlanta Falcons in jeopardy. Todd McClure is 34 years old and in the last year of his deal. With the Falcons stockpiling lineman in the draft, 2011 likely will be McClure's last one as an NFL player. If there's no football this year, could we have seen the last snap of McClure's career? He'd be 35 in 2012 and the Mike Johnson's and Joe Hawley's of the world would be itching for playing time, especially after a wasted season.

The other concern is with Tony Gonzalez. The 35-year old tight end also enters the last year of his deal and has flirted with retirement before. If the two sides can't reach an agreement, could Gonzalez simply walk away? Would he try to come back in 2012 at 36 years old? The only argument against him retiring if the season is canceled is his desire for a championship. If the Falcons stay intact through a year-long work stoppage, he may want to come back at any age to try and win a ring.

I have no doubts there will be professional football played this season. But what if I'm wrong? Could we have seen the last of McClure and Gonzalez? The Falcons are in great shape even with an extended lockout but missing an entire season could provide some unexpected openings at tight end and along the offensive line.

What The 2011 NFL Lockout Means For The Falcons, Saints, Panthers And Bucs

2011-03-14T14:50:11Z

With the NFL in the midst of the first lockout since 1987, many teams are left with question marks about their immediate and long-term future. A lockout means no free agency which in turn means using a completely new strategy for the 2011 NFL Draft. Not to mention the carnage left behind if the entire season is wiped out.

So how will the Falcons - and by extension the rest of the NFC South - be affected by the first work stoppage in 25 years? Using the number of free agents a team currently has, their potential needs in the upcoming draft and the number of players over 30 years old, we can use some mathematical goodness to determine which teams could be severely handicapped by this lockout and which ones may not even notice.

#1 - (least affected) Atlanta Falcons - The Falcons are in the best position of any NFC South team if the lockout is not resolved early on. They have the fewest number of free agents (13) and despite their high number of 30-plus players (12), they are coming off a 13-4 season with very few holes to fill. A new labor deal may not get done until October and this team could take the field as one of the best teams in the league, as-is.

#2 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - After an impressive 10-6 season, the Bucs are set to be the second-best in this division if the lockout continues into the summer months. They have the second-fewest free agents (17) and have only four players over 30 years old. This is a young team with a few holes to fill but nothing that should keep them from competing again in 2011. The lockout is not necessarily a bad thing for this team.

#3 - Carolina Panthers - The Panthers have the most needs to fill and with quarterback being one of them, this lockout could really hurt this franchise. They have 21 free agents and seven players over 30 years old (both third in the NFC South). Since a quarterback takes time to learn the playbook and develop timing with the receivers, a prolonged lockout could essentially mean another disastrous season.

#4 - (most affected) - New Orleans Saints - Though this team is as complete as the Falcons, they may not be if/when the lockout is resolved. The Saints have 29 free agents and 14 players over 30 years old (both NFC South highs). Depending on how soon the labor impasse is resolved, the Saints could be trying to implement a draft strategy without knowing where almost 55 percent of their team will end up.

Obviously, if the lockout is resolved the free agent signings could drastically change this landscape. For now though, the Falcons are in the best position to become the first team to repeat as NFC South champions for the first time ever.

Alabama Pro Day: Mark Ingram Gets Faster

2011-03-10T15:47:05Z

Alabama's Pro Day gave top prospect Mark Ingram one more chance to impress his future employer. With Ron Rivera (Panthers) and John Fox (Formerly Panthers, now Broncos) watching closely, Ingram confirmed his knee injury was fully healed when he ran a 4.47 40-yard dash. That was an improvement from his time of 4.62 at the NFL Scouting Combine.

Also for Alabama was defensive tackle Marcel Dareus, wide receiver Julio Jones and Wonderlic-expert quarterback Greg McElroy. Jones and McElroy are both recovering from injuries and did not work out. Dareus put to rest all doubts about his high ankle sprain he played last season with and there are some who believe he could be a better player than Nick Fairley at Auburn.

The Falcons likely have no interest in Ingram with Michael Turner and Jason Snelling rostered but with wide receiver help a top priority this offseason, Jones has the potential to be added later in the draft.

Thomas Dimitroff Signs Atlanta Falcons Contract Extension

2011-03-09T23:00:59Z

After locking up head coach Mike Smith last month, the Atlanta Falcons have followed suit by inking Thomas Dimitroff to a multiyear contract extension. For Dimitroff this just adds to his growing legacy. He won the Executive of the Yearaward from Sporting News for the second time in three years and he's central figure in a new book set to be released this fall.

It's a well-deserved extension and a virtual no-brainer when you consider the talent base he's put in place since his arrival in Atlanta. His home runs have included Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Curtis Lofton, Tony Gonzalez, Sam Baker, Mike Peterson, Thomas DeCoud, Kroy Biermann and Dunta Robinson. Every single one of those players were drafted or signed under Dimitroff's watch.

The savvy player personnel moves have translated to the field as well with three consecutive winning seasons and two playoff appearances since 2008. After the Bobby Petrino-Michael Vick drama, Falcons fans just wanted to be respectable again but Dimitroff has made them championship contenders.

Thomas Dimitroff Signs Atlanta Falcons Contract Extension

2011-03-09T23:00:59Z

The Atlanta Falcons have locked up Thomas Dimitroff with a multiyear contract extension.

Auburn Pro Day: Cam Newton, Nick Fairley Impress But Questions Still Remain

2011-03-09T16:21:49Z

There were two takeaways from Auburn's Pro Day. One, Cam Newton redeemed himself after a disappointing performance at the NFL Scouting Combine. And two, Nick Fairley is who we thought he was.

During Tuesday's workout, Newton showcased his skills for 48 minutes in front of potential suitors including Carolina Panthers head coach Ron Rivera who holds the No. 1 pick in the 2011 NFL Draft. There are still knocks on Newton's footwork though most who attended said his mechanics are improving.

Other questions surround his accuracy and unfortunate "entertainer and icon" statement prior to the combine. Those concerns aside, there's absolutely no denying his arm strength and athletic ability. He's been compared to Ben Roethlisberger and Michael Vick and even a combination of the two. Newton could be Bike RoethlisVicker, the ultimate NFL quarterback.

Mock drafts have Newton going anywhere in the top 12 picks though the momentum is pushing him towards the first overall. If the head coaches in attendance are any indication, Newton is likely headed to the Panthers (No. 1), Broncos (No. 2), Bengals (No. 4), Cardinals (No. 5) or Browns (No. 6). Of the teams with the top six picks, only Buffalo Bills head coach Chan Gailey did not attend the workout personally.

Fairley, who worked out prior to Newton, maintained his lofty draft status. His impressive combine coupled with his solid Pro Day almost assuredley means he'll be one of the first two players off the board in April's draft. One caveat from Todd McShay though puts doubt on both Fairley and Newton's pro potential.

"One scout put it perfectly when he turned to me at one point and said: "You can't tell me [Newton and Fairley] aren't two of the three best players in the draft, but you also can't tell me you'd be totally comfortable taking either at No. 1 overall if your job were on the line."

'War Room' Book On Thomas Dimitroff, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli Out In October

2011-03-09T03:40:07Z

A new book chronicling the impact of Bill Belichick in the NFL will feature Atlanta Falcons' General Manager Thomas Dimitroff as a central figure. "War Room: Bill Belichick and the Patriot Legacy," is due out October 4.

From the publisher:

This is a football book with three central characters: Patriots head coach Bill Belichick, Chiefs general manager Scott Pioli, and Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff. Michael Holley [followed] Belichick, Pioli, and Dimitroff through the entire 2010 season—from training camp 2010, through the Super Bowl, and into the April draft—exploring the personal connections of the three men and the increasing influence of the Patriot way.

Most of the recent Falcons success is attributed to Dimitroff. His shrewd draft strategies haven't always aligned with the popular mock drafts but his track record speaks for itself. When he was awarded Executive of the Year by Sporting News, some were surprised by the choice. It's clear now that in most NFL circles, Dimitroff is coveted. This is absolutely because of his time with the Patriots. The book summary goes on to say:

Belichick and Pioli have been friends since the 1980s, when Belichick was a young coordinator for the New York Giants. They worked together in Cleveland, New York (Jets) and New England. In 2008, Pioli left for Kansas City to build a Midwestern Patriots model. A year before Pioli left, Dimitroff was the surprising top GM choice of the Falcons, who dreamed of building Patriots South in Atlanta.

The NFL has always been a copycat league. If it works for one team there's no reason to think it can't work for yours. The Patriots started it. The Chiefs and Falcons are continuing it. Those three teams went a combined 37-13 in 2010. The book finishes up with April's NFL Draft.

The culmination of the narrative will be all three men preparing their teams for the lifeblood of the NFL, which is the draft, as all three franchises seek to improve themselves through similar philosophies but perhaps different strategies.

This should be a very interesting read. Considering how secretive Belichick is - and by extension Dimitroff - anytime the curtain is pulled back is a good thing. If nothing else it will give you something to read in case there's no football in 2011.

Via Arrowhead Pride