There's a change at the top. The Atlanta Falcons have taken over the number one spot in the NFL's Week 11 Unibiased Power Rankings. The Falcons had been number two for several weeks but finally leapfrogged the Pittsburgh Steelers after they beat the Baltimore Ravens and the Steelers lost to the New England Patriots. The AFC, however, remains the more powerful conference with six of the eight best teams residing among their borders.
The biggest risers this week were the Miami Dolphins (+6), Jacksonville Jaguars (+6), Seattle Seahawks (+5) and Chicago Bears (+5) who all delivered impressive victories in Week 10. Teams that felt the cold sting of the Power Rankings were the Arizona Cardinals (-6), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5) and St. Louis Rams (-4). The Buccaneers fell despite a win because beating the Carolina Panthers does not earn you much credit within the Unbiased kingdom.
The Buccaneers are also the team with the largest discrepancy between their record and their power ranking. Despit being tied for fourth with a 6-3 record, the Bucs are only 21st in our Unbiased rankings. The Bears and Chiefs are also appearing to be paper champions who appear ready to be exposed as the season draws to a close. Teams that are low in the standings but will be moving up based on their Unbiased ranking include the Houston Texans, Tennessee Titans and Washington Redskins. All three teams were beaten last week but if we follow the rankings, they will all make some noise in the final month of the season.
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The Best of the Best
Seven teams have emerged as legitimate Super Bowl favorites. The Falcons and Eagles from the NFC and the Steelers, Patriots, Jets, Ravens and Colts in the AFC. Through 10 weeks, those seven have proven they have the necessary components in place to make a run into February. The rest of the league has too many questions at this point.
The second tier of contenders includes the AFC's Titans, Raiders and Texans. The NFC second-tier teams are the Packers, Saints, Giants, Seahawks and Redskins. These teams could make a push but will need to play better over the last seven games than they did during the first nine.
NFC South
Though the standings are close, the NFC South is really a two-team race. The Falcons have emerged as the best team in the NFL so it makes sense they are the favorite to win their division. The Saints are rounding into form and could be factor for the division but most likely a wild card is their best bet. The Buccaneers continue to beat bad football teams but they are not a legitimate contender for a division title. The Carolina Panthers have enjoyed making sure the bottom spot is take care of and they continue to do so.
Unbiased Playoff Picture
Regardless of a team's current record, this is how we see the playoffs shaping up through Week 10.
| Team | Team | ||
| Pittsburgh Steelers | Atlanta Falcons | ||
| New England Patriots |
Philadelphia Eagles | ||
| Indianapolis Colts |
Green Bay Packers | ||
| Oakland Raiders | Seattle Seahawks | ||
| New York Jets |
New Orleans Saints | ||
| Baltimore Ravens |
New York Giants | ||
The Biggest Games of Week 11
No. 6 - Seahawks at Saints: This is a potential playoff matchup. Yes, I'm serious. Read on.
No. 5 - Redskins at Titans: Both teams coming off bad losses, who will bounce back?
No. 4 - Texans at Jets: Texans trying to stop their skid against Jets defense.
No. 3 - Raiders at Steelers: This game is relevant for the first time since the 1970s.
No. 2 - Giants at Eagles: The NFC East lead is on the line.
No. 1 - Colts at Patriots: Colts have won five of six but this their first meeting in Foxboro since 2006.
AFC Potential Playoff Breakdown
Wild Card Weekend:
Ravens @ Colts: Ray Lewis, Payton Manning. I'm watching.
Jets @ Raiders: Old-school AFL football.
Divisional Playoffs:
Ravens @ Steelers: Let the hate flow through you.
Jets @ Patriots: Are you kidding me?!? A must-watch.
Championship Game:
Patriots @ Steelers: Patriots have won two AFC title games in Pittsburgh.
NFC Potential Playoff Breakdown
Wild Card Weekend:
Giants @ Packers: A rematch of the 2007 NFC Championship game.
Saints @ Seahawks: Qwest Field is a tough place to play, especially in January.
Divisional Playoffs:
Saints @ Falcons: My mind explodes at the thought of this potential matchup.
Packers @ Eagles: Rodgers vs. Vick.
Championship Game:
Eagles @ Falcons: Vick vs. the Falcons for the NFC title? Georgia Dome may blast off.
Super Bowl:
Steelers vs. Falcons: What we all saw in Week 1 was just the beginning.
Methodology: The Unbiased Power Rankings are exactly that, unbiased. We take into account a team's wins, losses and a strength of schedule component to arrive at a truly unbiased rating. We have no preseason polls, no preset baselines. Only the performance on the field - this season - matters. Emotion is not welcome here. Still interested? Here's the ingredients we use to make this delicious stew of math-based power rankings.
Each team is awarded five points for a win and five points for every game a defeated opponent wins. To measure a loss, the total number of opponent wins is divided by the number of the ranked team's losses.
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