Following their overtime loss to the division leading Saints the Atlanta Falcons will seek greener pastures as the 5-4 Tennesee Titans come to town following a big victory over the Carolina Panthers. The betting community has quite a lot of faith in the Falcons this week with lines as high as -7 being available right now.
One could easily see this match-up as a battle between an under achiever and an over achiever of the 2011 NFL season. Atlanta were seen as a sure 10+ win team and a possible NFC Champion caliber team, and while they've had moments that show that potential there have been times where they've looked inherently flat, as reflected as their 5-4 record.
On the other side of the field the Titans are also 5-4, but in a wholly surprising manor; benefiting from a division featuring weak Jacksonville and Indianapolis teams the Titans have won games through a stout defense, reliable (albeit aging) QB and a surprisingly mediocre running game with Chris Johnson only now finding his legs.
The game line is 44.5 and based on that I'm taking the under this week. The 30 pts the Titans scored in Carolina last week is an anomaly, and this could become a defensive battle. Chris Johnson will have a harder time against the Falcons than he did against the Panthers, and that alone could skew this game a lot.
In terms of that -7 line I'm taking the Falcons. I think they surge forward from this point and really turn on the Jets. This is the kind of game that looks closer on paper than reality shows, and in this way I think the Falcons get the win comfortably this week.