The Georgia Bulldogs are favored by a touchdown over the Central Florida Knights in the 2010 Liberty Bowl. While they’re the general public’s pick as the SEC team with the easiest W, there’s reason to believe the Dawgs have a more overmatched opponent than any other team in the country.
Phil Steele broke down strength of schedule disparities for each 2010 bowl game, finding the Liberty ranked first. Yes, the Dawgs’ SOS was tougher than UCF’s by an even greater margin than Oklahoma’s was over UConn’s.
The Knights almost played the nation’s easiest slate, ending up 114th, while Georgia’s ranked 43rd. If they’d switched schedules, do you think they would’ve switched records, too? UCF only lost to N.C. State, Kansas State, and Southern Miss — though Georgia minus A.J. Green was capable of losing to anybody, it’s not unreasonable to say the Dawgs would’ve ended up a one-loss team or better.
As Braves & Birds shows, strength of schedule disparity is a darn reliable way of predicting bowl game winners and losers.