clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Independence Bowl, Georgia Tech Vs. Air Force: Checking The Lines From Vegas

According to our partner Odds Shark, Air Force is a 2-point favorite. Bodog.com lists the Falcons at -3. 

Both lines seem to be about right to me, mainly based on the fact that Tech struggled to end the season, losing four of their last five games. Air Force, on the other hand, won three straight to finish the campaign. The Falcons lost four games all season, including one possession losses to #7 Oklahoma, #8 Utah, and San Diego State. Their other defeat came against #5 TCU. For those keeping score at home, half of their losses came to teams playing in BCS games.

One area that may favor Georgia Tech is strength of schedule. Despite those close losses to three good teams, the cadets didn't face much of a challenge in their wins. They did beat the other two service academies, but only faced the 83rd strongest schedule according to Phil Steele. The Jackets actually surprised me with their ranking, coming in at the 48th spot. Considering the generally weak ACC, Kansas' abysmal season, and Georgia's .500 record, 48th is relatively good

The over/under for the game is 56. My initial thought is to take the under. These triple-option battles tend to be lower scoring than normal because the defenses are familiar with the offenses. The option offenses that are based so heavily on precision and timing can also struggle given the rust of a long layover, which helps to favor the defense. In an effort of full disclosure, however, I don't have much confidence in the under. This very easily could be a game that lights up the scoreboard with quick strikes from both teams. 

Photographs by coka_koehler used in background montage under Creative Commons. Thank you.